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File No.
GR-DOSSIER-51069
Active File
Confidence: Public
Resilience Dossier

Frederick CountyVirginia · VA

50
/ 100fair
Composite scale0 ─ 100
50
CriticalExcellent
State rank
#85VA
National rank
#2,204/ 3,436
Population
91,33685.4/km²
FIPS 51069│AREA 1,070 km²│LAT 39.2037 · LON -78.2638
§01

Geospatial

39.20°N, 78.26°W
Map of Frederick County, VA
Target ▸ Frederick County
N│Mapbox dark-v11
§02

Analyst Brief

Voice ▸ Stratfor

▌Frederick County is a county in Virginia, with a population of 91,336, covering 1,070 square kilometers. Population density is 85.4 people per square kilometer. On the Scout composite resilience index, Frederick County scores 50 out of 100, ranked #85 in VA and #2,204 of 3,436 regions. The five-year average temperature anomaly versus the 20th-century baseline is 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Counties above 2.6 degrees fall inside the climate tipping-point band. The FEMA National Risk Index composite hazard score is 51 out of 100. Annual precipitation averages 40.7 inches. Net IRS migration in the most recent tax year was +5.5 per 1,000 residents. USDA classifies the county as Rural-Urban Continuum Code 3 (1 = metropolitan core, 9 = completely rural).

§03

Assessment Matrix

6 Dimensions
D-0138

Climate Stability

Natural hazard exposure, temperature anomaly vs. 20th-century baseline, drought, wildfire, and flood risk.

D-0242

Water & Food

Groundwater reliability, precipitation normals, growing season length, and cropland availability.

D-0371

Social Stability

Net migration, social vulnerability, and crime rates.

D-0461

Infrastructure

Solar energy potential, off-grid power viability, and proximity to nuclear facilities.

D-0547

Self-Sufficiency

Rural-urban classification, agricultural diversity, and land availability.

D-0643

Affordability

Median home value and rental costs relative to the national range. Lower cost counties score higher.

§04

Source Telemetry

14 Inputs
S-01Climate
FEMA NRI hazard score
51.29 /100
Temperature anomaly
2.61 °F
S-02Water
Annual precipitation
40.7 in
Soil saturation depth
1.6 ft
Growing season
185 days
S-03Social
Net migration
+5.5 /1k
Social vulnerability
0.255 /1
Crime index
3.6 /100
S-04Infrastructure
Solar irradiance
3.9 kWh/m²/d
Distance to nuclear facility
83.1 mi
S-05Self-Sufficiency
Cropland share
11.5 %
Rural-urban code
3 /9
S-06Affordability
Median home value
$333,600
Median rent
$1,347 /mo

Inputs marked “— —” are pending pipeline integration and currently use neutral defaults in the composite. They do not skew rankings.

§05

Cross-Reference

REF-A

Frederick County on the Scout map

See this county in spatial context. Compare with neighbors. Tune the composite weights to your priorities.

REF-B

Top counties in Virginia

State rollup ranking the highest- and lowest-scoring counties for resilience by composite Scout score.

§06

Citations

Full methodology ▸
  • FEMA-NRIFEMA National Risk Index, county composite hazard score
  • NOAA-TMPNOAA nClimDiv county temperature anomaly, 2020-2024 vs. 1901-2000 baseline
  • NOAA-PCPNOAA county precipitation normals, 1991-2020
  • IRS-MIGIRS county-to-county migration, tax year 2021-2022
  • CDC-SVICDC Social Vulnerability Index, 2022 release (RPL_THEMES)
  • USDA-RUCCUSDA Economic Research Service Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, 2023
  • NASA-PWRNASA POWER climatology, annual global horizontal irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
  • USDA-NASSUSDA NASS Census of Agriculture 2022, county cropland and total land area
  • USDA-SDMUSDA NRCS Soil Data Mart, average seasonal soil saturation depth (cm)
  • ACS-2022U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates 2022, median home value and gross rent