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File No.
GR-DOSSIER-49003
Active File
Confidence: Public
Resilience Dossier

Box Elder CountyUtah · UT

48
/ 100fair
Composite scale0 ─ 100
48
CriticalExcellent
State rank
#16UT
National rank
#2,469/ 3,436
Population
57,5793.9/km²
FIPS 49003│AREA 14,881 km²│LAT 41.6226 · LON -113.0603
§01

Geospatial

41.62°N, 113.06°W
Map of Box Elder County, UT
Target ▸ Box Elder County
N│Mapbox dark-v11
§02

Analyst Brief

Voice ▸ Stratfor

▌Box Elder County is a county in Utah, with a population of 57,579, covering 14,881 square kilometers. Population density is 3.9 people per square kilometer. On the Scout composite resilience index, Box Elder County scores 48 out of 100, ranked #16 in UT and #2,469 of 3,436 regions. The five-year average temperature anomaly versus the 20th-century baseline is 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Counties above 2.6 degrees fall inside the climate tipping-point band. The FEMA National Risk Index composite hazard score is 76 out of 100. Annual precipitation averages 12.4 inches. Net IRS migration in the most recent tax year was +5.8 per 1,000 residents. USDA classifies the county as Rural-Urban Continuum Code 4 (1 = metropolitan core, 9 = completely rural).

§03

Assessment Matrix

6 Dimensions
D-0129

Climate Stability

Natural hazard exposure, temperature anomaly vs. 20th-century baseline, drought, wildfire, and flood risk.

D-0222

Water & Food

Groundwater reliability, precipitation normals, growing season length, and cropland availability.

D-0374

Social Stability

Net migration, social vulnerability, and crime rates.

D-0471

Infrastructure

Solar energy potential, off-grid power viability, and proximity to nuclear facilities.

D-0555

Self-Sufficiency

Rural-urban classification, agricultural diversity, and land availability.

D-0660

Affordability

Median home value and rental costs relative to the national range. Lower cost counties score higher.

§04

Source Telemetry

14 Inputs
S-01Climate
FEMA NRI hazard score
76.49 /100
Temperature anomaly
2.25 °F
S-02Water
Annual precipitation
12.4 in
Soil saturation depth
2.0 ft
Growing season
141 days
S-03Social
Net migration
+5.8 /1k
Social vulnerability
0.121 /1
Crime index
8.7 /100
S-04Infrastructure
Solar irradiance
4.7 kWh/m²/d
Distance to nuclear facility
457 mi
S-05Self-Sufficiency
Cropland share
6.5 %
Rural-urban code
4 /9
S-06Affordability
Median home value
$308,900
Median rent
$927 /mo

Inputs marked “— —” are pending pipeline integration and currently use neutral defaults in the composite. They do not skew rankings.

§05

Cross-Reference

REF-A

Box Elder County on the Scout map

See this county in spatial context. Compare with neighbors. Tune the composite weights to your priorities.

REF-B

Top counties in Utah

State rollup ranking the highest- and lowest-scoring counties for resilience by composite Scout score.

§06

Citations

Full methodology ▸
  • FEMA-NRIFEMA National Risk Index, county composite hazard score
  • NOAA-TMPNOAA nClimDiv county temperature anomaly, 2020-2024 vs. 1901-2000 baseline
  • NOAA-PCPNOAA county precipitation normals, 1991-2020
  • IRS-MIGIRS county-to-county migration, tax year 2021-2022
  • CDC-SVICDC Social Vulnerability Index, 2022 release (RPL_THEMES)
  • USDA-RUCCUSDA Economic Research Service Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, 2023
  • NASA-PWRNASA POWER climatology, annual global horizontal irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
  • USDA-NASSUSDA NASS Census of Agriculture 2022, county cropland and total land area
  • USDA-SDMUSDA NRCS Soil Data Mart, average seasonal soil saturation depth (cm)
  • ACS-2022U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates 2022, median home value and gross rent