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File No.
GR-DOSSIER-47157
Active File
Confidence: Public
Resilience Dossier

Shelby CountyTennessee · TN

41
/ 100poor
Composite scale0 ─ 100
41
CriticalExcellent
State rank
#93TN
National rank
#2,922/ 3,436
Population
929,552471.9/km²
FIPS 47157│AREA 1,970 km²│LAT 35.1846 · LON -89.8946
§01

Geospatial

35.18°N, 89.89°W
Map of Shelby County, TN
Target ▸ Shelby County
N│Mapbox dark-v11
§02

Analyst Brief

Voice ▸ Stratfor

▌Shelby County is a county in Tennessee, with a population of 929,552, covering 1,970 square kilometers. Population density is 471.9 people per square kilometer. On the Scout composite resilience index, Shelby County scores 41 out of 100, ranked #93 in TN and #2,922 of 3,436 regions. The five-year average temperature anomaly versus the 20th-century baseline is 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Counties above 2.6 degrees fall inside the climate tipping-point band. The FEMA National Risk Index composite hazard score is 99 out of 100. Annual precipitation averages 55.4 inches. Net IRS migration in the most recent tax year was -4.2 per 1,000 residents. USDA classifies the county as Rural-Urban Continuum Code 1 (1 = metropolitan core, 9 = completely rural).

§03

Assessment Matrix

6 Dimensions
D-0124

Climate Stability

Natural hazard exposure, temperature anomaly vs. 20th-century baseline, drought, wildfire, and flood risk.

D-0256

Water & Food

Groundwater reliability, precipitation normals, growing season length, and cropland availability.

D-0329

Social Stability

Net migration, social vulnerability, and crime rates.

D-0468

Infrastructure

Solar energy potential, off-grid power viability, and proximity to nuclear facilities.

D-0522

Self-Sufficiency

Rural-urban classification, agricultural diversity, and land availability.

D-0664

Affordability

Median home value and rental costs relative to the national range. Lower cost counties score higher.

§04

Source Telemetry

14 Inputs
S-01Climate
FEMA NRI hazard score
99.24 /100
Temperature anomaly
1.65 °F
S-02Water
Annual precipitation
55.4 in
Soil saturation depth
1.6 ft
Growing season
257 days
S-03Social
Net migration
-4.2 /1k
Social vulnerability
0.871 /1
Crime index
52.4 /100
S-04Infrastructure
Solar irradiance
4.4 kWh/m²/d
Distance to nuclear facility
160.7 mi
S-05Self-Sufficiency
Cropland share
11.1 %
Rural-urban code
1 /9
S-06Affordability
Median home value
$206,100
Median rent
$1,103 /mo

Inputs marked “— —” are pending pipeline integration and currently use neutral defaults in the composite. They do not skew rankings.

§05

Cross-Reference

REF-A

Shelby County on the Scout map

See this county in spatial context. Compare with neighbors. Tune the composite weights to your priorities.

REF-B

Top counties in Tennessee

State rollup ranking the highest- and lowest-scoring counties for resilience by composite Scout score.

§06

Citations

Full methodology ▸
  • FEMA-NRIFEMA National Risk Index, county composite hazard score
  • NOAA-TMPNOAA nClimDiv county temperature anomaly, 2020-2024 vs. 1901-2000 baseline
  • NOAA-PCPNOAA county precipitation normals, 1991-2020
  • IRS-MIGIRS county-to-county migration, tax year 2021-2022
  • CDC-SVICDC Social Vulnerability Index, 2022 release (RPL_THEMES)
  • USDA-RUCCUSDA Economic Research Service Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, 2023
  • NASA-PWRNASA POWER climatology, annual global horizontal irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
  • USDA-NASSUSDA NASS Census of Agriculture 2022, county cropland and total land area
  • USDA-SDMUSDA NRCS Soil Data Mart, average seasonal soil saturation depth (cm)
  • ACS-2022U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates 2022, median home value and gross rent