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File No.
GR-DOSSIER-41033
Active File
Confidence: Public
Resilience Dossier

Josephine CountyOregon · OR

42
/ 100poor
Composite scale0 ─ 100
42
CriticalExcellent
State rank
#30OR
National rank
#2,898/ 3,436
Population
88,03220.7/km²
FIPS 41033│AREA 4,244 km²│LAT 42.3870 · LON -123.5716
§01

Geospatial

42.39°N, 123.57°W
Map of Josephine County, OR
Target ▸ Josephine County
N│Mapbox dark-v11
§02

Analyst Brief

Voice ▸ Stratfor

▌Josephine County is a county in Oregon, with a population of 88,032, covering 4,244 square kilometers. Population density is 20.7 people per square kilometer. On the Scout composite resilience index, Josephine County scores 42 out of 100, ranked #30 in OR and #2,898 of 3,436 regions. The five-year average temperature anomaly versus the 20th-century baseline is 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Counties above 2.6 degrees fall inside the climate tipping-point band. The FEMA National Risk Index composite hazard score is 88 out of 100. Annual precipitation averages 53.9 inches. Net IRS migration in the most recent tax year was +0.4 per 1,000 residents. USDA classifies the county as Rural-Urban Continuum Code 3 (1 = metropolitan core, 9 = completely rural).

§03

Assessment Matrix

6 Dimensions
D-0121

Climate Stability

Natural hazard exposure, temperature anomaly vs. 20th-century baseline, drought, wildfire, and flood risk.

D-0243

Water & Food

Groundwater reliability, precipitation normals, growing season length, and cropland availability.

D-0347

Social Stability

Net migration, social vulnerability, and crime rates.

D-0468

Infrastructure

Solar energy potential, off-grid power viability, and proximity to nuclear facilities.

D-0538

Self-Sufficiency

Rural-urban classification, agricultural diversity, and land availability.

D-0650

Affordability

Median home value and rental costs relative to the national range. Lower cost counties score higher.

§04

Source Telemetry

14 Inputs
S-01Climate
FEMA NRI hazard score
88.1 /100
Temperature anomaly
2.48 °F
S-02Water
Annual precipitation
53.9 in
Soil saturation depth
1.3 ft
Growing season
171 days
S-03Social
Net migration
+0.4 /1k
Social vulnerability
0.782 /1
Crime index
14.5 /100
S-04Infrastructure
Solar irradiance
4.5 kWh/m²/d
Distance to nuclear facility
351.2 mi
S-05Self-Sufficiency
Cropland share
1.0 %
Rural-urban code
3 /9
S-06Affordability
Median home value
$353,800
Median rent
$1,093 /mo

Inputs marked “— —” are pending pipeline integration and currently use neutral defaults in the composite. They do not skew rankings.

§05

Cross-Reference

REF-A

Josephine County on the Scout map

See this county in spatial context. Compare with neighbors. Tune the composite weights to your priorities.

REF-B

Top counties in Oregon

State rollup ranking the highest- and lowest-scoring counties for resilience by composite Scout score.

§06

Citations

Full methodology ▸
  • FEMA-NRIFEMA National Risk Index, county composite hazard score
  • NOAA-TMPNOAA nClimDiv county temperature anomaly, 2020-2024 vs. 1901-2000 baseline
  • NOAA-PCPNOAA county precipitation normals, 1991-2020
  • IRS-MIGIRS county-to-county migration, tax year 2021-2022
  • CDC-SVICDC Social Vulnerability Index, 2022 release (RPL_THEMES)
  • USDA-RUCCUSDA Economic Research Service Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, 2023
  • NASA-PWRNASA POWER climatology, annual global horizontal irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
  • USDA-NASSUSDA NASS Census of Agriculture 2022, county cropland and total land area
  • USDA-SDMUSDA NRCS Soil Data Mart, average seasonal soil saturation depth (cm)
  • ACS-2022U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates 2022, median home value and gross rent