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File No.
GR-DOSSIER-39095
Active File
Confidence: Public
Resilience Dossier

Lucas CountyOhio · OH

40
/ 100poor
Composite scale0 ─ 100
40
CriticalExcellent
State rank
#82OH
National rank
#2,963/ 3,436
Population
431,225490.2/km²
FIPS 39095│AREA 880 km²│LAT 41.6823 · LON -83.4689
§01

Geospatial

41.68°N, 83.47°W
Map of Lucas County, OH
Target ▸ Lucas County
N│Mapbox dark-v11
§02

Analyst Brief

Voice ▸ Stratfor

▌Lucas County is a county in Ohio, with a population of 431,225, covering 880 square kilometers. Population density is 490.2 people per square kilometer. On the Scout composite resilience index, Lucas County scores 40 out of 100, ranked #82 in OH and #2,963 of 3,436 regions. The five-year average temperature anomaly versus the 20th-century baseline is 4.0 degrees Fahrenheit. Counties above 2.6 degrees fall inside the climate tipping-point band. The FEMA National Risk Index composite hazard score is 84 out of 100. Annual precipitation averages 34.2 inches. Net IRS migration in the most recent tax year was -1.5 per 1,000 residents. USDA classifies the county as Rural-Urban Continuum Code 2 (1 = metropolitan core, 9 = completely rural).

§03

Assessment Matrix

6 Dimensions
D-018

Climate Stability

Natural hazard exposure, temperature anomaly vs. 20th-century baseline, drought, wildfire, and flood risk.

D-0250

Water & Food

Groundwater reliability, precipitation normals, growing season length, and cropland availability.

D-0348

Social Stability

Net migration, social vulnerability, and crime rates.

D-0431

Infrastructure

Solar energy potential, off-grid power viability, and proximity to nuclear facilities.

D-0552

Self-Sufficiency

Rural-urban classification, agricultural diversity, and land availability.

D-0678

Affordability

Median home value and rental costs relative to the national range. Lower cost counties score higher.

§04

Source Telemetry

14 Inputs
S-01Climate
FEMA NRI hazard score
84.06 /100
Temperature anomaly
4.00 °F
S-02Water
Annual precipitation
34.2 in
Soil saturation depth
1.4 ft
Growing season
189 days
S-03Social
Net migration
-1.5 /1k
Social vulnerability
0.678 /1
Crime index
20.5 /100
S-04Infrastructure
Solar irradiance
3.8 kWh/m²/d
Distance to nuclear facility
20.4 mi
S-05Self-Sufficiency
Cropland share
32.9 %
Rural-urban code
2 /9
S-06Affordability
Median home value
$144,200
Median rent
$879 /mo

Inputs marked “— —” are pending pipeline integration and currently use neutral defaults in the composite. They do not skew rankings.

§05

Cross-Reference

REF-A

Lucas County on the Scout map

See this county in spatial context. Compare with neighbors. Tune the composite weights to your priorities.

REF-B

Top counties in Ohio

State rollup ranking the highest- and lowest-scoring counties for resilience by composite Scout score.

§06

Citations

Full methodology ▸
  • FEMA-NRIFEMA National Risk Index, county composite hazard score
  • NOAA-TMPNOAA nClimDiv county temperature anomaly, 2020-2024 vs. 1901-2000 baseline
  • NOAA-PCPNOAA county precipitation normals, 1991-2020
  • IRS-MIGIRS county-to-county migration, tax year 2021-2022
  • CDC-SVICDC Social Vulnerability Index, 2022 release (RPL_THEMES)
  • USDA-RUCCUSDA Economic Research Service Rural-Urban Continuum Codes, 2023
  • NASA-PWRNASA POWER climatology, annual global horizontal irradiance (kWh/m²/day)
  • USDA-NASSUSDA NASS Census of Agriculture 2022, county cropland and total land area
  • USDA-SDMUSDA NRCS Soil Data Mart, average seasonal soil saturation depth (cm)
  • ACS-2022U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates 2022, median home value and gross rent